Back in the day (and by that we mean the ’80s) the broadcast TV networks used to go all out in their coverage of the midterms, the November elections held at the two-year mark between presidential contests.
But that hasn’t happened since the advent of cable news. So if you’re mainly interested in who’s going to control the U.S. Senate after Tuesday, cable is your best bet: CNN, Fox, MSNBC, Al Jazeera America or the BBC. That’s where you’ll get the best coverage of the 36 Senate races in the country, as well as the 32 governors’ races — although the Florida contest between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist has attracted so much national attention (most of it embarrassing) that it’s likely to be a main event on all the networks, broadcast or cable.
There are plenty of other Florida contests that should absorb your attention, but in the closer-than-ever race for the governor’s mansion there’s not only the question of whether we will even have a winner next Tuesday (Democratic Party strategist Steve Schale has predicted for months that we’ll all go to bed uncertain about who our next governor is), there’s also the curiosity of seeing whether Libertarian Party candidate Adrian Wyllie can get double digits, which would be a statement of sorts. Then there’s the battle over medical marijuana and the referendum on Pinellas’ transit tax, which could very well be as important to the region as any other race on the ballot.
If you’re looking for state and local election coverage and your cable provider is Bright House, you’re in luck: Bay News 9’s reporting is timely and thorough. Al Ruechel will be your genial host on Tuesday night, with political commentary provided this year by dueling talking heads Ana Cruz and Chris Ingram, representing the Democratic and Republican parties.
However, if you have Verizon FIOS or don’t have cable news, well, updates will be hard to find. (CL didn’t have much success finding out what local network affiliates will be up to on Tuesday.) But TV ain’t everything; local NPR affiliate WUSF (89.7 FM) will have national coverage starting at 8, with twice-hourly local updates.
Still, the best way to follow breaking results is to do what political reporters, candidates and other obsessed folks do on election nights: Constantly refresh the website of the Florida Division of Elections as well as the sites of the Supervisor of Elections for Hillsborough and Pinellas.
As for CL’s coverage, look for updates through the day and evening on Tuesday at cltampa.com/politicalanimal, or follow me @clmitchperry.
Medical marijuana: Seeing red
Florida is a purple state, meaning it’s part conservative Southern backwater (hello Rick Scott) and part bastion of center-left Democratic Party values (as it showed in supporting Barack Obama in 2008 and again in 2012). How the state comes down on Amendment 2 will define us a little more clearly.
And right now we’re looking more red than blue.
A recent Tampa Bay Times poll shows the measure narrowly passing at 48-44 percent. But even though it’s winning, it’s actually losing. That’s because the GOP-led Legislature changed the rules on amendments in 2006 to require that they win by at least a 60 percent margin, making Florida one of the toughest places in the nation to pass a citizen initiative.
Critics of Amendment 2 — like the Times editorial board — say the measure would work better if it were passed by state lawmakers rather than enshrined in the state Constitution. Somewhat naively, they wrote that “with enough political pressure, lawmakers should be able to legalize medical marijuana,” citing the approval of Charlotte’s Web, a form of non-euphoric marijuana that is used to treat children with seizures.
But South Florida Democratic state Senator Jeff Clemens has proposed such legislation over the past four years, and gotten nowhere.
“There’s no question that we would be better off passing these statutorily rather than as a constitutional amendment,” Clemens told the Sarasota-Herald Tribune. “The Legislature has abdicated its responsibility in these areas and the citizens took it upon themselves.”
Pinellas County Commissioner Charlie Justice agrees. He thinks it would be better for the Legislature to allow for citizen initiatives to be voted on directly, as is the case in many states, rather than having voters weigh in on amendments to the state’s constitution. But while there was an attempt to do that a decade ago in Tallahassee, nothing has been attempted since that time.
Panhandle showdown
There’s lots of talk on national cable news programs about who will control the U.S. Senate for the next two years, but with neither Bill Nelson nor Marco Rubio up for re-election, the national midterms haven’t had much relevance in Florida. And with President Obama’s poll numbers tanking, the Democrats have no hopes of regaining the House of Representatives.
Nonetheless, one of the country’s most interesting congressional races this fall is in the Panhandle, where Tea Party favorite Steve Southerland is being challenged by a scion of Florida Democratic Party royalty, Gwen Graham, the 50-year-old daughter of former Florida Governor and Senator Bob Graham. In order to win, though, she’s had to make clear that she doesn’t have anything to do with the liberal wing of the party, as she’s blasted House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi. She also has said that her party should stop “framing” Republican policies as a “war on women.”
Transit jammed?
If this 1-cent sales transit tax does go down to defeat next Tuesday, Tampa Bay leaders will be conducting some serious post-analysis discussions of what they could possibly have done differently.
You see, unlike the much-maligned 2010 Hillsborough County transit tax campaign, Pinellas County leaders and transportation advocates have not made the same mistakes.
Greenlight has the Establishment on its side, in the form of the Greater St. Petersburg Chamber of Commerce and the Times editorial page, and Yes on Greenlight, the political action committee formed to advocate for the measure, has raised over $1 million and out-fundraised No Tax for Tracks, the anti-Greenlight PAC, by a margin of over 10-1.
And yet…
All indications are that the vote on this measure is extremely close, which means turnout will be an obvious factor. Some officials (okay, the Chamber’s Chris Steinocher) have called the vote the biggest decision Pinellas County will make in the next 50 years.
And it’s worth nothing that Polk County is voting on a similar referendum Tuesday.
It’s called My Ride/My Road Initiative, and it’s essentially the same deal as the Greenlight Plan. There’s a tax swap at the heart of it: eliminating the portion of a county resident’s property taxes that currently go to transit, with the sales tax then going up a penny. Transit and road projects would each receive $30 million a year from the tax.
Expanded transit service would provide non-stop trips to Tampa International and Orlando International airports and provide subsidized taxi service for people on second and third shifts.
Who’ll get schooled?
Currently there are three members of the Hillsborough County School Board who have been extremely critical of Superintendent MaryEllen Elia, and whatever happens next Tuesday, the pro-Elia forces will still have the majority in their favor, so the superintendent isn’t going anywhere she doesn’t want to go anytime soon.
But there will definitely be a different tone on the dais if two-term incumbent April Griffin is knocked out of a third term by the well-funded Valrico-based attorney Dipa Shah in the race for the countywide District 6 seat.
Shah is running as the anti-Griffin in the race. She’s sent out a mailer mocking her opponent with the headline “We Don’t Allow Temper Tantrums In Schools, Why Are We Allowing Temper Tantrums On The School Board?” with a bawling youth providing the visuals.
The District 4 school board race is voted on only by those who live in the district, which encompasses Brandon, Valrico, Plant City, FishHawk, Riverview and Wimauma. Former Brandon Chamber of Commerce President Melissa Snively just turned Republican a couple of years ago, which makes her somewhat vulnerable against the very far-right platform of Christian conservative Terry Kemple. Interestingly, the Hillsborough County Republican Executive Committee chose sides in this race, going with Kemple. Snively says as a mom of four kids and a businesswoman, she’s more in touch with the concerns of the district than Kemple is. This race should show just how conservative District 4 voters are.
Commission clash
Outgoing GOP Commissioner Norm Roche violated the unwritten role of Pinellas Republican politics — it’s okay to be conservative, but at least be a “sensible” conservative. Ed Hooper ousted Roche in the August primary, and now takes his eight years of legislative experience up against Largo Mayor Pat Gerard in a race that got damn ugly from the get-go.
No need to review the he-said/she-said’s. It’s depressing. But this is likely to be a very close contest.
Fun fact: If Gerard were to oust Hooper, it would give the Dems a 4-3 advantage on the commission for the first time in a very, very long time.
Politics and the prof
Senate District 22, a seat now occupied by Republican Jeff Brandes, extends from St. Pete Beach to South Tampa and was held by a Democrat as recently as 2010. Democrats couldn’t muster up a candidate to run against Brandes in 2012, but came up with a strong opponent this time around in Judith McLauchlan, a USF St. Pete political science professor steeped in government work as a former staffer and campaigner for both Bill Clinton and Al Gore.
Brandes is not a garden variety Republican. He’s got a Libertarian streak that causes him to break from the traditional GOP mold occasionally. But he’s also fiercely conservative on many issues, something that McLauchlan has had no trouble attacking on the campaign stump.
It would be considered an upset if the Democrat prevailed, but this has been a fun race to observe.
