The conventional wisdom for months now has held that the Affordable Care Act, a/k/a Obamacare, is a political loser and the future downfall of Democrats everywhere in the midterms this November. But could that be misplaced?
It's too early to say. Although supporters of the ACA have felt the wind at their back in recent weeks, the law still fails to gain over 50 percent approval in most public opinion polls. But one thing seems to be getting clearer: Sup porters of the legislation — be they incumbents or challengers to Republicans — have more ammunition to trot out when talking about the law.
"Look, we have 8 million people who have signed up, much more than the president predicted," New Jersey Democratic Representative Frank Pallone told CL Wednesday afternoon in Tampa. "When we look at the innovation and the way we're changing the system with health care in a way that's much more quality-oriented, it's just a very positive initiative, and I'm going to continue to talk about it in every aspect."
Health care premiums are still scheduled to rise next year (not a surprise since they go up every year), but only by 7 percent — a rate of increase lower than what opponents had been predicting. And the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects lower health insurance premiums than originally expected.
Growth in medicine spending remains at historically low levels despite a significant uptick last year, and continues to contribute to the bending of the health care cost curve," Murray Aitken, executive director of IMS, which provides reports to health companies and creates market forecasts, told USA Today last week. "We think (the uptick in spending is) a reflection of a stronger economy, more patients with insurance and some relief of pent-up demand for services because of the economic downturn."
Democrats may also be feeling a little bit better about their chances to hold control of the U.S. Senate this year based on a New York Times/Kaiser Family Foundation poll released on Wednesday that says that, despite a strong dislike of the ACA, a majority of people in three Southern states – Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina – would rather Congress improve the law than repeal and replace it.
When asked if he thinks some Democrats, particularly in the South, may attempt to run away from the bill instead of embracing it, Pallone said that "each member has to do their own thing in their own district, but I now feel strongly that the ACA is tremendously successful." And he said that as time goes on, he believes "more and more people will realize the positive aspects of the ACA. Not only in terms of covering people, but also in terms of quality of performance."
That doesn't mean House Republicans will stop voting to repeal Obamacare. Iowa GOP Representative Tom Petri was recently quoted as saying that repeal votes will continue as long as there are freshmen in the GOP caucus.
"They’re new members, they want to be on the record against it,” he said. “Constituents are saying you haven’t done anything, so the new members say — bring it up so we can vote against it, so we can say at least we tried. That’s what’s going on.” Asked if that means Congress could reach 100, Petri said, “No, because every Congress starts over, so the next Congress will start with new [crosstalk].”
