Monday, November 5, 2012

Connie Mack in Tampa: The polls are wrong

Posted By on Mon, Nov 5, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Rep. Dana Young, Connie Mack IV, Connie Mack III and Priscilla Mack lead the cheers in Tampa
  • Rep. Dana Young, Connie Mack IV, Connie Mack III and Priscilla Mack lead the cheers in Tampa
With the exception perhaps of one outlier, virtually every poll taken on the Florida U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson and GOP party challenger Connie Mack IV has shown Nelson on top. But Mack said they're all wrong and thanks to a record GOP turnout, he expects to beat Nelson in Tuesday night's election.

Mack has said that his fortunes will rise or fall depending on how the man at the top of the GOP ticket — Mitt Romney — fares in Florida. So how would one explain a Mason-Dixon poll conducted for the Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Tampa Bay Times that shows Romney up by six points over Obama (51-46), but Mack trailing Nelson by six points (49-43).

"When you oversample Democrats by six points, it makes it difficult for us to win," Mack told CL on Monday at the Romney Victory offices off Gandy Boulevard in South Tampa.

"But Democrats are not going to be six points higher on election day than Republicans," he continued. "In fact, it's never happened in the state of Florida. This race is either tied or we're up by a point or two. That's where we are."

Mack's contention that the polls are skewed is an opinion that is almost universally shared amongst Republicans this campaign season.

Neil Newhouse, the pollster for Mitt Romney, said he doesn't believe the polls in the swing states "reflect the composition of what 2012 is going to look like." That's an attitude shared by other conservatives like Rush Limbaugh and Dick Morris. They believe those pollsters are missing the boat, and will have figurative large eggs on their faces after a Romney victory (or romp, as Morris has said too many times publicly to walk away from).

Mack also said that this Wednesday, reporters will be writing stories about how "the turnout models were all wrong in the polls and that Republicans turned out in record numbers."

Whether there's any validity to that will be known after the election, but Mack appeared relaxed at his brief Tampa stop-over where he was joined by his father, former U.S. Sen. Connie Mack III, and his mother, Priscilla.

Introduced by Tampa GOP state Rep. Dana Young (who faced no Democratic challenger this year, two years after she won the seat after a bitter battle against Democrat Stacy Frank), Mack spoke for about 10 minutes to approximately 100 volunteers at the Romney headquarters.

He hit on all his familiar talking points, saying that a vote for him and Mitt Romney would be a vote against the bigger government, more regulation, and more taxation philosophy of Barack Obama and Sen. Nelson. He also repeated that if elected, he'd help defund U.S. financial support for the United Nations, and he would repeal the Affordable Care Act and the Dodd-Frank financial regulation bill.

Meanwhile Sen. Nelson doesn't appear to be sweating out what will happen on election day. His press spokesperson sent out an email documenting four recent polls that show the Democrat up by an average of eight percentage points over his Republican challenger.

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