Wednesday, October 31, 2012

According to Team Obama, Florida is looking blue six days out. Team Romney disagrees

Posted By on Wed, Oct 31, 2012 at 3:19 PM

Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina
  • Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina
Let's be very clear here: we have no idea who's going to win the presidential election, though we have been on record as saying that we've always thought Mitt Romney would take Florida.

But the sheer bravado of recent conference calls hosted by Team Obama svengalis Jim Messina and David Axelrod makes one believe it's 2008, and not 2012, and that the president will not only take the Sunshine State, but every other battleground, like Virginia, North Carolina and of course Ohio.

Responding to a question from Miami Herald political editor Mark Caputo about how could the Obama team is doing so well this year when "almost every poll in Florida shows you losing independents," Messina was more than ready to respond.

Early voting was 14 days in 2008, it's eight days now. After the first four days of early voting in 2008, Democrats were down basically 25,000 with early vote and vote-by-mail and it took six days of early vote for Democrats to exceed the Republican turn-out. In 2012, despite Rick Scott cutting early voting period from fourteen days to eight, and thanks to record turnout out across across Florida for early voting, Democrats overtook Republicans in turn-out after just two days.

After the first four days of early voting in 2008, Democrats had a 134,000 registration advantage, in 2012 after four days, Democrats have 119,198 turnout advantage basically matching the margins from '08. At this point in 2008, Republicans had a 163,000 vote-by-mail advantage, this year Democrats have closed that advantage and Republicans only lead by about 59,000 returned mail-in ballots. Over the past several days Democrats have been returning in ballots at a higher rate than Republicans, this trend is expected continued to continue since there are nearly 20,000 more Democratic vote-by-mail ballots than Republicans out there to be returned. At this point in 2008, Republicans had 46,000 more out there to be returned. so we continue to believe in the days ahead you're going to see our margin grow here, and that's why we feel confident
."

CL wasn't on the conference call set up later in the day hosted by Romney Political Director Rich Beeson, but he had a slightly different opinion, telling reporters that Romney will Florida by double digits.

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