Thursday, October 11, 2012

President Obama and the single woman vote

Posted By on Thu, Oct 11, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Although fans of Barack Obama are expressing concerns about the bounce that Mitt Romney has enjoyed since his successful debate performance against the president last week in Denver, what should really alarm the Democrats is the swing in one particular demographic that has been with the president all year long — the single women bloc.

Monday's much-discussed Pew Research Poll showed a dramatic turnaround in the race.

The new four-point lead (49 to 45 percent) that Romney now has over Obama overall (the previous Pew Poll had Obama up by eight points) is significant, but what's truly startling is that Pew shows Romney now tied with Obama among single women — a demographic that Obama has owned all of 2012. In September, Romney trailed Obama by 18 points with single women.

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg tells Washington Post blogger Greg Sargent that Obama's poor performance in the Denver debate has really hurt him with this key demographic.

“They heard nothing there that was relevant to them,” Greenberg says. “They were not hearing about issues or problems or things that Obama would do that affect their lives.”

Conversely, Greenberg told Sargent that Romney scored by discussing the economic strain on middle class citizens. “When Romney talked about what he is going to do for the middle class, his five-point plan, they were very responsive,” Greenberg says. “The president had a lot of detail but didn’t have the set-up in values.”

Single women make up a full quarter of the electorate. A recent CNN report said that in 2008, single women voted for Barack Obama over John McCain by 41 percentage points, 70-29 percent.

Greenberg says that before last week's debate debacle, Obama's numbers were similar against Romney both nationally and in focus groups in Ohio and Virginia by a 63-24 percentage.

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