A new Quinnipiac poll released early Wednesday has Mitt Romney up in the Sunshine State over Barack Obama, 47-41 percent.
It marks the second month in a row that Romney has gained in the Q survey. Last month the two were in a statistical tie, while in March Obama held his biggest lead in Florida in a one-on-one match-up with Romney, when he led 49-42 percent.
That news comes down the same day the Obama for America Florida team announced a new ad called "Personal."
Just as congressional candidate Jessica Ehrlich did in her appearance with House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer on Wednesday, Democrats are pushing the Medicare issue hard here in Florida, home to America's senior generation.
A response sent to my email box came today not from the Romney camp, but American Crossroads, the Super PAC aligned with Karl Rove that is spending millions here on behalf of Mitt Romney. It was filled with quotes from the Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press and the Heritage Foundation claiming that President Obama was raiding Medicare Advantage to pay for his health care plan. That's been disputed by PolitiFact, as we reported after the Florida Chamber of Commerce attacked Bill Nelson for supporting the Affordable Care Act.
Meanwhile, back to the Quinnipiac Poll.
"Gov. Mitt Romney has slipped into the lead in Florida and that standing is confirmed by his much better numbers than the president when voters are asked whether they view the candidates favorably or unfavorably. They view Romney favorably 44 - 35 percent, while Obama gets a negative 45 - 50 percent favorability," said Peter A. Brown, assistant vice president of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Romney's comeback in Florida is similar to how he's done in other battleground states of late in comparison to a few months ago, when he was still in the thick of the GOP race for president and getting bashed everyday by Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. Now that the coast is clear, those Republican voters are no doubt "coming home," and the polls are reflecting that.
Florida has always been troublesome for Obama over the past couple of years, and other numbers in the survey aren't very encouraging. The women's vote is essentially even in Florida, while Obama gets 42 percent of the Hispanic vote — though the poll doesn't show how well Romney did with that demographic.
If Romney were to choose native son Marco Rubio to be his running mate, his chances improve slightly — gaining two extra percentage points.
Steve Schale, who ran the Obama campaign in 2008 in Florida, tweeted that the Q poll has some "real sampling issues," saying that blacks in particular will be much more represented at the polls this November than they were in this particular Quinnipiac survey.