Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Bud Chiles to depart the campaign - can we miss what we never had?

Posted by Mitch Perry on Wed, Sep 1, 2010 at 6:52 PM

I

click to enlarge Bud Chiles
ndependent gubernatorial candidate Bud Chiles is scheduled to call it a day - or a campaign- with an announcement Thursday that he's dropping his bid to follow in the footsteps of his father and run the state of Florida.

The former Democrat, who never quite sounded authentic when he opted to go indie, didn't get in the race until the first week of June, so let's be honest: any discussion of his candidacy has been a side issue.  Back in June, Chiles said this:

"It’s big money versus big money and the people are left on the sidelines.  I refuse to play that game. I am in this race as an independent, beholden to no party. My campaign is all about bringing people together, not dividing folks.”

Chiles had been flirting with running for higher office for over a year, using his platform with the Lawton Chiles Foundation to rail against Tallahassee's GOP priorities - or lack thereof -when it came to core Democratic party issues like education and health care in a campaign he called Worst To First.

But any momentum as insurgent seemed to be squashed when the St. Pete Times Lee Logan reported that Chiles had a ton of baggage from his personal business dealings (information that we know certain Democrats were very helpful into getting into reporters hands).

It's too bad that Chiles didn't run in the Democratic primary.  Sink was the overwhelming party establishment favorite, but Chiles has lots of good ideas. 

Although the immediate thought is that Alex Sink did a little touchdown dance when she learned that Chiles is to drop out (and endorse her),  pollster Tom Jensen has a contradictory perspective, which CL agrees with.  Jensen, with Public Policy Polling (still enjoying their fame in calling the Scott-McCollum race), said not all of Chiles support were from Democrats:

Contrary to conventional wisdom the Chiles voters were Republican and conservative leaning folks quite unhappy with the Democrats. So you might expect his dropping out to actually benefit Rick Scott.

The only problem with that- 60% of them have an unfavorable opinion of Scott while only 15% see him favorably. Chiles was a landing spot for folks who didn't like Scott or the Democrats. With him out those folks are going to have to make a lesser of two evils choice- does it bother us more to vote for a guy we dislike or to vote for a Democrat? My guess is it ends up being a wash and having no real effect on the race.

I still insist that just as important as the 10-12% that Chiles was getting in some polls is the 10% of Republicans who voted for political unknown Mike McAllister, who got a shocking 10% of the GOP vote in last week's primary.  Those were Republicans apparently disgusted with both Scott and McCollum who went for the human version of None of the Above.

Alex Sink, a safe centrist, should be the natural inheritor of those votes.  But Rick Scott is doing his damnedest to paint Sink as anything but.  Check out what he said after Bud Chiles dropped out:

”We have always planned on a two person race for governor,” said Scott. “This will be a contest which presents a clear choice between a conservative outsider with business experience and a specific plan to create 700,000 jobs and another liberal Obamacrat who wants to raise taxes, cut Medicare, and supports Obama’s failed stimulus. Anyone who doubted that Chiles would eventually drop out underestimates how desperately Obama liberals like Alex Sink want to do to FL what they have done to America.”

A subsequent press release on education has Scott calling Sink's disapproval of SB 6 as another way to tie her with the Preident:

After opposing SB 6, a plan that clearly lays out responsible teacher merit pay, she is now talking about a ‘fair’ compensation system for teachers, which is Obama-speak for ‘union approved.’

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